Natural gas

These are merely my notes from the conference. I hope they will be useful to others as an index to the volumes of material that were covered.

-Gazprom defends rigid contract terms with Europe
-Gazprom dismisses warnings of lengthy gas glut
-EU seeks Russian energy boost

We've recently heard more veiled threats from Putin about Ukraine being unable to pay for gas (thus presumably leading to new attempts at cutting them off), which suggests that Russia is getting itself ready to start a new crisis.

For several years, Gazprom has had surpassingly bad PR -- worse even than Exxon, which since the 19th century heyday of John D. Rockefeller has almost proudly disdained the opinion of the world at large. The main problem has been Gazprom's intrusion into the lives of its neighbors -- its routine shutoff of gas to Georgia in the 1990s, for example, and its long reluctance to lease pipeline space for the export of natural gas from land-locked Kazakhstan, both actions that happen to coincide with the desire of Moscow to keep a foot on the throat of these former Soviet republics.

A weekly review including:
- The day of the whistleblower
- A New focus for the World Energy Outlook
- Production and prices
- Oil and the recovery
- Quote of the Week
- Briefs

The IEA 2009 World Energy Outlook, the report which informs energy policy for 28 nations, was released on Tuesday in London. The report’s key focus this year was climate change...

On the eve of the International Energy Agency’s release of its annual World Energy Outlook (WEO), a whistleblower at the IEA claims the agency “has been deliberately underplaying a looming [oil] shortage for fear of triggering panic buying” in the world markets.

-IEA Whistleblower Claims Agency Has Downplayed Looming Oil Shortage
-"It's Really Bad" - Oil Supplies Intentionally Overstated
-Looming oil crunch played down: IEA whistleblower
-Did the US pressure the IEA over oil supply forecasts?

Last week, two remarkable events at World Oil magazine raised the decibel level about shale gas. First, WO columnist Art Berman’s latest shale piece, intended for the November issue, was yanked prior to publication. Berman immediately resigned...Fischer, the magazine’s editor for 11 years, reports that he fought the column’s cancellation, then took two days off. "When I returned I was fired," Fischer relates. "I wasn't told why, but neither was I surprised."

A weekly review including:
- Production and prices
- Recovery or Speculation?
- Climate Change
- Peak Demand
- Quote of the Week
- Energy Stat of the Week
- Briefs

What Arthur Berman is saying is that natural gas companies that extract shale are mis-estimating how quickly natural gas production will decline in the future--they are assuming gas production will decline more slowly than evidence indicates it will. As a result of their optimistic assumptions about decline rates, they are assuming that shale gas can profitably be extracted for as long as 50 years, when Berman believes the average well life is only about 8 years.

-The heart of India is under attack
-Shale gas blasts open world energy market
-Shale gas numbers may not add up
-It’s a dirty business — the new gold rush that is blackening Canada’s name

There seems to be a consensus that the depletion of fossil fuels will follow a fairly impressive slope. What may need to be looked at more closely, however, is not the "when" but the "what." Looking at the temporary shortages of the 1970s may give us the impression that the most serious consequence will be lineups at the pump. Fossil-fuel decline, however, will also mean the end of electricity, a far more serious matter.

On October 20-21, the 30th Oil & Money Conference, convened in London by Energy Intelligence and the International Herald Tribune, attracted roughly 500 attendees, many from the industry press (most of them working for the conveners). Held under tight security at the opulent Intercontinental Hotel, a half-dozen oil ministers past and present plus two dozen CEOs and VPs of oil producing, service companies and other industry players shared their views.

Oil prices vacillated this week, falling back from their recent high on news of unexpectedly large US inventories, later rallying as the US economy officially emerged from recession...