Middle East

In my view, the Uppsala study is unduly pessimistic, implying an immediate crisis (in 2010 and thereafter) which is not in accord with reasonable expectations about future production levels both within OPEC and outside the cartel. In alerting the public to the peak oil issue, the Guardian is doing good work. But not knowing any bettter, they picked the wrong study in my view. The false choice the Guardian offers us, the IEA or Uppsala, amounts to a kind of all or nothing proposition.

-The most recent economic downturn is a peak oil recession
-Oil: future world shortages are being drastically underplayed, say experts
-Oil reflects dollar moves, not market dynamics: Yergin
-Is the world awash in oil?

I decided to write another rather basic level article because there are so many people I meet who have heard a bit about the oil situation, and it is hard to point to one single article to give an overview of some of the current issues. Regular readers will find many repeats of graphs. There are some new ones, as well, from the Denver ASPO-USA conference. Because there is so much to tell, the story gets a little long.

At last we know...sort of. An article in the UK newspaper The Guardian for November 9, titled “Key Oil Figures Were Distorted by US Pressure, Says Whistleblower,” reveals what hundreds of analysts have been trying to convey to world leaders for years: The global oil supply situation is critical and getting worse, and vested interests are playing key roles in covering up this devastatingly inconvenient truth.

Matthew Simmons, Chairman of “Simmons & Company International”, is the world’s largest private energy investment banker. Moreover, he is a leading expert on the crucial topic of Peak Oil. In the following interview, Mr. Simmons talks about the on-going recession, explains why we might have reached an end of growth and gives his reading of last year’s oil price spike.

The party isn't over -- at least not yet. For the last year, relatively low oil prices have helped us all cope with the economic collapse. We've paid less for gasoline than we have for years. And businesses have paid less for running their factories, planes and product transportation. But last week we began hearing the music die down and waiters moving guests out the door.

-Obama at the Precipice
-Fighting the Taliban
-Is Escalation Obama's Only Choice in Afghanistan?
-Pakistan targets key Taliban town

-Clinton: Russia sees Iran threat
-Another setback on Iran
-Iran’s nuclear threat is a lie

-Qatar Airways uses natural gas fuel on flight from London
-Sellers on the spot ahead of gas war
-Assembly of peak oil experts look at shale gas

Last week Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi revealed the secret for economic recovery, everlasting happiness and you-name-it. The secret -- keep oil prices at $75 a barrel -- turned out to be so simple it is surprising we didn't think of it ourselves.

-Keeping Iran honest
-Ahmadinejad Rejects Obama's Nuclear Warning
-Iran's Global Foray Has Mixed Results
-Iran defies Western pressure with missile test-firing
-Iran: The Next Neocon Target
-Obama's Move: Iran and Afghanistan

-Debate about peak oil is misleading
-Saudi provides realistic outlook on energy future
-OAPEC to spend $133 bn on boosting refinery output
-Abu Dhabi to invest $10 bn on green projects
-UNDP Arab Human Development Report 2009

-Will Afghans defy Taliban and flock to the ballot box?
-Baghdad bombings raise questions about U.S. pullback
-Will U.S. Back Bogus Afghan Elections?

Thirty contestants, only one winner in the Iraqi oil licence gameshow
Eager to Tap Iraq's Vast Oil Reserves, Industry Execs Suggested Invasion
The unemployment timebomb is quietly ticking
Interview: Hungary—“Where we went wrong”