DAVE COHEN

More evidence for the disconnect between Nymex (WTI) and Brent prices surfaced this week. Although the spread has narrowed, Nymex rose to $94.16/barrel, almost seven dollars more than it was two weeks ago in my as Saturday report. Brent came in at $112.55, only a few dollars higher than it was on October 22. The alarm level remains the same.

The tin production story is out there is in plain sight, but only those directly involved in supplying the tin ore, refining it or consuming tin metal are paying any attention. Bloomberg's Bear Market in Tin Ending as Shortages Mean PT Timah’s Profit Advances 55% explains what's going on now, and what's been going on for years now...

Looking at the oil supply & demand fundamentals, next year looks like an accident waiting to happen. If economic growth in emerging economies remains on track, and that is a big If, the next oil price shock will occur in 2012.

There are many lessons about Human Nature to be learned from the aquacalypse—human-caused destruction of animal life in the world's oceans. I shall pinpoint several of them today.

"The most important conclusion of this paper is that the peak of global coal production from the existing coalfields is imminent, and coal production from these areas will fall by 50% in the next 40 years. The CO2 emissions from burning this coal will also decline by 50%. Thus, current focus on carbon capture and geological sequestration may be misplaced. Instead, the global community should be devoting its attention to conservation and increasing efficiency of electrical power generation from coal."

There is little doubt that a weak dollar is the "unofficial" policy of the Treasury and the Federal Reserve. Even as I write this, I can hear the feverish, fearful cries of the Dollar Collapsers, the Gold Bugs, the Hyperinflationistas, and many others calling out to me, telling me in no uncertain terms to buy gold, silver, oil, corn, wheat—anything with tangible value I can get my hands on. But like the vast majority of Americans, I am not in position financially to buy any of these things. I must use dollars. As CNBC tells me, if I don't like a weak dollar, I might as well get used to it. Get used to it?

My thesis is that global economic expansion has broken down, and where there are pockets of economic growth as in China or Brazil, it is unlikely that growth will continue for much longer. (I am thinking on decadal scales.) Clearly this is a subject for a book, whereas today I am going to outline why this thesis is credible in a blog post.

Thirty-four years have come and gone since Energy Secretary James Schlesinger described the American approach to oil supply problems. "We have only two modes—complacency and panic." Nothing has changed. As popular revolt spread from Egypt into Libya, panic smoothly replaced complacency in the markets and the overwrought minds of the American people. Apparently, since Egypt blew up first, and Libya, which is west of Egypt, blew up next, it has been deemed logical to conclude that Algeria, which is west of Libya, will be the next domino to fall.

Libya is one of the smaller oil exporters in OPEC. They were producing 1.65 million barrels per day in 2010 (through October) according to EIA data. However, the very serious political upheaval in this North African country poses a genuine threat to that production.

I was at my local watering hole one night talking to a professor at Carnegie Mellon University when, after several libations, I suddenly heard myself exclaiming when did everybody get stupid? By stupid, I did not mean mentally slow or impaired. Rather, I meant ignorant or untrained to think. As with so many other things, I believe you can lay this at the feet of a culture dominated by corporations, aka. the "consumer" society.