Energy Bulletin

Ah, fusion. Long promised, both on Do the Math and in real life, fusion is regarded as the ultimate power source—the holy grail—the "arrival" of the human species. Talk of fusion conjures visions of green fields and rainbows and bunny rabbits--and a unicorn too, I hear. But I strike too harsh a tone in my jest. Fusion is indeed a stunningly potent source of energy that falls firmly on the reality side of the science fiction divide—unlike unicorns. Indeed, fusion has been achieved (sub break-even) in the lab, and in the deadliest of bombs. On the flip side, fusion has been actively pursued as the heir-apparent of nuclear fission for over 60 years. We are still decades away from realizing the dream, causing many to wonder exactly what kind of "dream" this is.

Now more than ever, leaders need to focus on what matters most - the long-term resilience of people and the planet - the High-level Panel on Global Sustainability urged in its report presented today to UN Secretary-General BAN Ki-moon in Addis Ababa.

The 22-member Panel, established by the Secretary-General in August 2010 to formulate a new blueprint for sustainable development and low-carbon prosperity, was co-chaired by the presidents of Finland and South Africa. The final report contains 56 recommendations to put sustainable development into practice and to mainstream it into economic policy as quickly as possible.

(excerpts from the final report)

- Put planet and its people at the core of sustainable development, urges report
- UN panel aims for 'a future worth choosing'
- UN paints bleak picture of sustainability
- U.N. pitches Rio+20 talks as a departure from political strife over climate change

Cesare Marchetti proposed hydrogen (H2) as a large-scale energy vector almost fifty years ago. The main concern then was to find a simple way to feed transport systems with what seemed to be a fountain of energy about to come from the expanding nuclear park. The nuclear dream is largely gone, but hydrogen lives on. Is this dream about to come true as a piece in the transition puzzle to a post-fossil fuel world? That's what I was expecting to find out at a renewable energy / efficiency conference the University of Lorrain.

And, as we're always saying here at Transition Voice, however compelling evidence may be in a white paper, chart, graph, or long lecture, if it doesn't succeed in communicating the problem and possible solutions to the problem in a way that engages people, it can end up being of little use except in obscure research or as a footnote somewhere. That's why we were excited to review a new documentary out of the UK, The Crisis of Civilization, by filmmaker Dean Puckett. In the trailer it looked like the newest, most accessible peak oil film since The End of Suburbia. And once we watched the film, we weren't disappointed.

In a recent post, I talked about why we may be reaching Limits to Growth of the type foretold in the 1972 book Limits to Growth. I would like to explain some additional reasons now.

-A circular economy tackles the root problems of overconsumption [report]
-The End of Elastic Oil
-When you are betting on shale gas, watch the dealer's eyes

All of a sudden, the Strait of Hormuz has become the most combustible spot on the planet, the most likely place to witness a major conflict between well-armed adversaries.  Why, of all locales, has it become so explosive?

Oil, of course, is a major part of the answer, but -- and this may surprise you -- only a part.

For decades, GDP has enjoyed supreme status as the predominant benchmark of our economic and social progress. In reality, GDP obscures or ignores essential aspects of Americans’ economic and social welfare, as well as important social and environmental dimensions of our national welfare and future well-being.

The director of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) will be delivering a lecture titled "U.S. Energy Outlook: Whatever Happened to 'Peak Oil'" at Indiana University on February 6. The description of the lecture provides some background: "Not long ago, the public heard much concern that the nation and the globe had reached or was about to reach the point of peak oil production and would be on a downward trajectory due to declining resources. Despite growing demand for energy, however, fossil fuel resources have never been higher."

A weekly roundup of peak oil news, including:
-Oil and the global economy
-the Iranian confrontation
-The Euro crisis
-Refining petroleum
-Quote of the week
-Briefs

- Solar Panels in China: An Emerging U.S.-China Trade Dispute?
- 'Bicycle pump' to turn wave power into clean energy
- El panorama energético actual (Argentina)

Climate-change calamities, devastating for those affected, have important implications for how we think about the role of government in our future. During natural disasters, society regularly turns to the state for help, which means such immediate crises are a much-needed reminder of just how important a functional big government turns out to be to our survival.

This chapter explores details behind the phenomenal increase in global crude oil production over the last century and a half and the implications if that trend should be reversed. I document that a key feature of the growth in production has been exploitation of new geographic areas rather than application of better technology to existing sources, and suggest that the end of that era could come soon. The economic dislocations that historically followed temporary oil supply disruptions are reviewed, and the possible implications of that experience for what the transition era could look like are explored.

President Obama exuberantly embraced America’s new oil and gas frontier this week in his State of the Union address. Clearly aiming to steal some Republican election thunder, he pledged to open 75% of potential oil and gas resources, and repeated claims that the US is sitting on enough natural gas to last for 100 years (see insightful commentary on the numbers behind this from Chris Nelder, and more on gas prospects from David Strahan.

Stop wrangling over global warming and instead reduce fossil-fuel use for the sake of the global economy.

That's the message from two scientists, one from the University of Washington and one from the University of Oxford in the United Kingdom, who say in the current issue of the journal Nature (Jan. 26) that the economic pain of a flattening oil supply will trump the environment as a reason to curb the use of fossil fuels.

The "tipping point" for oil supply appears to have occurred around 2005, says James W. Murray, UW professor of oceanography. The commentary concludes: "This will be a decades-long transformation and we need to start immediately. Emphasizing the short-term economic imperative from oil prices must be enough to push governments into action now."

Last March, a 9.0 magnitude earthquake and subsequent tsunami left nearly 20,000 dead or missing and destroyed 125,000 buildings in the Tohoku region of Japan. The two disasters also caused three reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant to melt down, which released dangerous levels of radiation into surrounding areas and led to national power shortages. Tokyo’s iconic neon signs were switched off as rolling blackouts spread across the country. Faced with the greatest reconstruction task since World War II, Japan is asking difficult questions about the future of its energy supply and just what sort of society should emerge from the ruins.

A midweekly roundup of peak oil news, including:
-Developments this week

The strategy discussed in last week's post--that of walking away from energy-intensive lifestyles before the waning of the age of abundant energy brings them grinding to a halt--is a viable response to the crisis of our age, but it's also a great way to poke a stick at some of the most deeply entrenched of the modern world's dysfunctional habits of thinking. Suggest it in public, for example, and you'll very quickly learn why all that talk about saving the planet has turned out to be empty air: everyone's quite willing to watch someone else make sacrifices for the good of the biosphere, but ask them to make sacrifices themselves and you'll see just how far their love of the planet extends.